China will continue to demand large quantities of beef, but the surprise is that the United States will have a high deficit

     China has been undergoing a process of enormous social transformation. For years, its economy has been growing at high rates, there is a strong migration from the countryside to the cities, and improvements in the quality of life of a large part of its population are recorded, which implies modifications in its diet. This is why its demand for beef increases, which has made it the largest buyer in the world.

     Although it began an investigation at the WTO for alleged damage to its producers from this import, this year will not be the exception. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects that China would buy 3.9 million tons in 2025, which means an increase of 30% compared to 2020.

     The Uruguayan analyst Rafael Tardáguila also indicated that “the stocks of imported meat in China are at low levels. Out of an index of 100 reached in May, they are currently at 75. We have to see how they stand after the celebrations for the Lunar New Year for those who are supplying themselves from the countries of Oceania, mainly from Australia.”

     This has to do with its proximity to China. For this reason, shipments from South America have cooled down and therefore prices have dropped 10% compared to those between the end of November and the beginning of December. What can be sent from the Southern Cone will not arrive for the new year. 

     But there is an unexpected fact. The growing demand from China will have to compete this year with the greater import needs of the United States, whose production is falling due to having entered into a process of cattle retention.

     “The United States has a growing gap between imports and exports, it is the largest difference since the mad cow episode at the beginning of the century. Its eagerness to import meat will be higher than in 2024,” warned one of the main observers of the global business, Ignacio Iriarte.

     The consultant added that “the gap between imports and exports would be 800 thousand tons, the highest since the beginning of the century.”

     The USDA's own projection indicates that the United States will import more than 2 million tons and export 1.2 million tons of beef. The increase in its purchases will be 30% compared to the volume reached in 2022.

     Brazil is the one that will have the greatest chances of taking advantage of this commercial context, not only because of its high production volume but also because of its better competitive conditions.

     The real has devalued in recent months and that gives another advantage to the meat packing plants based in Brazil, which have a much lower cost of raw material than the local industry. In Brazil, the price of steer is $3.25 per kilo on the hoof, compared to $4.20 for a kilo of steer in Argentina.

     The consultant added that of the total exported by Brazil in 2024, 50% was destined for China and that the United States became its second most important market with a 7.5% share and shipments of 190,000 tons.

     And what about the Argentine meat packing plants? For now, they hope that the good relationship between Trump, who will take office on Monday, will allow the possibility of discussing at least an increase of the quota of 20,000 tons for that country.